Independent weather forecaster, Dennis Luke is predicting some serious rain for the Merimbula and Pambula areas and believes the system will hit around 1am Thursday morning, June 13.
Dennis Luke is an independent weather forecaster who provides weather predictions to both the Melbourne Storm and Western Bulldogs for their training schedules. On Monday Mr Luke phoned the News Weekly to warn that a tropical system that was currently developing would pass through Mildura and Canberra before moving into the Merimbula-Pambula area whereupon it will intensify into a bigger low pressure system and bring very heavy rainfalls of between 50 and 150 millimetres on Thursday.
The current radar on both BOM and WeatherZone both show serious rainfall hitting the Canberra area at about 10am Wednesday morning and so Mr Luke is looking on track with his prediction.
The system is currently tracking at about 9kms an hour which would mean it will arrive early in the morning on Thursday unless wind speeds change in the meantime.
Speaking to the News Weekly, on Tuesday, June 11, deputy controller at the State Emergency Services (SES), Illawarra-South Coast region, Ashley Sullivan, said that the SES takes its official warnings from the Bureau of Meteorology. He said they are aware of the weather system in question and are monitoring it closely and making preparations, agreeing that there is “potential” for the system to worsen.
Mr Sullivan said: “The bureau’s models change all the time, as their information is updated.”
He said that if the rain falls in the upper catchment there would potentially be more damage caused by flooding than if the falls occurred closer to the coast, where it would more likely result in localised flash flooding.
“These kinds of systems are very unpredictable,” he added, “but we are always preparing in the background.”
“Weather is our bread and butter.”
Mr Luke said the both the bureau and Weatherzone’s predictions for this week had changed six times in the past few days, forecasting from between 40-80 millimetres to “heavy rain,” however, the bureau’s weather and wave forecast map for NSW, as of late Tuesday afternoon, had been upgraded to reflect the intensified weather system with a prediction mirroring Mr Luke’s own.